Little Risk Of Systemic Contagion From The Evergrande Crisis

Reports

“China’s ghost cities” have become a familiar trope in Western media. Beyond Kangbashi, with its other-worldly stadiums and museums, there is Chengchong in southern Yunnan province; Binhai, outside the central city of Tianjin; and Tianducheng, in the Hangzhou suburbs, with its very own replica of the Eiffel Tower.

China’s ghost cities are in the news again because of the financial travails of Evergrande Group, China’s second-largest property developer which, teetering on the brink of default with outstanding debts of more than $305 billion. What effects the crisis can have and how German developers compare requires further analysis. Therefore, in the following some insights into this.

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low angle view of slightly opened door structure

Modular Market Reports – New Product From Industrialport

Reports

“The current Corona development and the associated lockdowns were a real blessing for industrial real estate in 2020”, writes Peter Salostowitz, Managing Director of Industrialport GmbH & Co. KG and lecturer for PropTech and Entrepreneurship at the Fresenius University, the test winner “Private Business Universities “.

“Hardly a week went by in 2020,” says Peter Salostowitz, “without a new large investor, developer or portfolio that has been sold. An end to this development is not yet in sight, as the financial resources from the other usage classes are now largely flowing in industrial properties.”

The decline of the previous supply structure in retail will require new supply channels, predict the experts from Idstein: “Whether these will compensate for the already experienced decline in demand on the part of the key industry in the future and whether the population’s increased financial fear will be an incentive to buy on the Internet is an exciting question.”

Regardless of these future questions, Industrialport emphasizes: “In any case, in the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the market for industrial real estate has shown itself to be significantly more resilient than other asset markets.” This is shown by the current report “Market in Minutes” industrial real estate market in Germany from Savills and IndustrialPort.

The IndustrialBundle market report from Industrialport is getting a big brother – the IndustrialKIT: “This modular market report enables you to evaluate our IWIP index data set on a daily basis. The evaluation can be created in different designs and in DE / EN. The previous IndustrialBundle elements can be combined with the new evaluation options. Of course, rental developments at the location can also be displayed. For a better classification, we also provide you with the value-driving parameters of the comparison cases that were included in the rent calculation.”

Practical Guide to Ratings of Real Estate Portfolios

Books

Oliver Everling and Raphael Slowik (Editor): Practical Guide to Ratings of Real Estate Portfolios, Immobilien Manager Verlag, Cologne, http://www.immobilienmanager.de/, bound edition, 1st edition 2009, 456 pages, ISBN 978-3-89984-197-8.

The book is in the German-speaking world and probably also internationally the first book for the rating of real estate portfolios. Since real estate is increasingly being actively managed by companies, (regional) corporations and foundations as an own asset class, it depends on the valuation and assessment standards that affect both the individual property / project and the portfolio as a whole.

The approaches that have been developed to this end, despite the growing interest of investors, who have to form judgments under more and more direct and indirect variants of the real estate investment, have so far been little known. The book shows the most important procedures and systems of the rating and aims in particular at the business management and legal design possibilities of real estate transactions for the optimization of real estate portfolios. The book sets standards in relation to the relevant questions and starting points.

Oliver Everling und Raphael Slowik (Herausgeber): Praxishandbuch Rating von Immobilienportfolios, Immobilien Manager Verlag, Köln, http://www.immobilienmanager.de/, gebundene Ausgabe, 1. Auflage 2009, 456 Seiten, ISBN 978-3-89984-197-8.

Rating of Retail Real Estate

Books

Oliver Everling, Olaf Jahn and Elisabeth Kammermeier (publisher): Rating of Retail Real Estate: Quality, Potential and Risks Safe Assessment, Betriebswirtschaftlicher Verlag Dr. med. Th. Gabler, Wiesbaden, http://www.gabler-verlag.de, hardcover, 1st edition 2009, 580 pages, ISBN 978-3-8349-0912-1.

Retail real estate, especially shopping centers, are important factors in business life – as trading platforms and therefore also as an investment opportunity. Their economic success is very important to a large number of interest groups. Not only investors, but also traders themselves, retailers, industry service providers, and cities and communities. It shows that reliable valuations and appraisals of retail real estate are highly significant information for a large group of people.

The aim of this book is to provide the reader with all the procedures and standards that are important in the assessment of retail real estate, and thus an investment decision. Essentially, it is important to make the economically important figures transparent, but also the legal, tax and technical aspects are examined in detail.

The broad spectrum of participating authors from financial institutions, facility management, the consulting world and the retail trade itself provides a perspective-rich and comprehensive presentation. The book is interesting for all potential tenants and investors, but also for local authorities.

Oliver Everling, Olaf Jahn und Elisabeth Kammermeier (Herausgeber): Rating von Einzelhandelsimmobilien: Qualität, Potenziale und Risiken sicher bewerten, Betriebswirtschaftlicher Verlag Dr. Th. Gabler, Wiesbaden, http://www.gabler-verlag.de, gebundene Ausgabe, 1. Auflage 2009, 580 Seiten, ISBN 978-3-8349-0912-1.

Rating German Care Industry

Read, Reports

In Germany, very tenth inhabitant will be at least 80 years old in 2060. The German care industry will soon face a very high investment requirement. By 2060, more than 5,800 additional full-time nursing home places might be needed each year.

The 65-year-olds and older people are steadily increasing. Immigration and a rising birth rate can not prevent the aging of society. In 2060, just under 23.6 million people will be over 65 years old. This represents an increase of 32 percent compared to 2018.

According to nursing statistics, in 2017, 92.5 percent of full-time care-dependent people in care were aged 65 and over, making them the main demand group. The demand for full-time care of 65-year-olds and older people amounted to 4.27 percent in Germany, reaching a new record high.

In a conservative approach, which requires constant proportions of the outpatient and inpatient sector and a constant nursing rate, in the year 2060 around 1 million people in need of care would need a full-time home. This represents an increase of more than 33 percent compared to 2017. With an average size of 80 places per home, around 74 fully residential nursing homes would have to be built annually by 2060. From 2011 to 2017, the nursing rate has increased. If this trend continues, by 2060 there would even be a significantly higher demand for full-time care places.

This does not take account of any federal building regulations, which can once again create an immense additional need for new construction, since, for example, legally required single occupancy rates cause a loss of care places. In addition, due to ramshackle building structures, the increasing demands and the elimination of multiple expiring grandfathering additional buildings are required.

residential location

Scoring Sustainable Residential Locations

Criteria, Read

What constitutes future-oriented residential areas? The answer is complex and can not be answered in a general or even complete manner for all residential real estate between Norderney and Berchtesgaden. A recent study searched for similarities that characterize future-proof and long-term profitable housing, and examines these success criteria more closely.

Ten macro-location and nine micro-location criteria with a particularly large impact on the future viability of residential real estate were identified. These macro and micro factors were evaluated.

This scoring does not just consider the macro criteria that determine the future viability of an entire city. For the first time, the scoring combines these insights with microcriteria that refer to a single location, a self-contained neighborhood or borough. The particular challenge lies in the selection of the set of criteria on the micro level. Living is very individual, the requirements of people vary depending on their life model, age and preferences.

The quantitative basis for the analysis is provided by the scoring, which combines macro and micro aspects using a standardized, specially developed tool for the initial assessment of residential areas. For the analysis, data from 30 German cities (“macro locations”) and 30 city districts according to KGS 12 (“micro locations”) were collected, examined and evaluated. In doing so, attention was paid to a balanced geographical distribution and the inclusion of residential locations from all clusters of cities in order to achieve the most realistic possible representation of the overall market. With regard to residential locations, the approach distinguishes between macro-location and micro-location criteria.

Some of the criteria show an inventory, such as security or affordability. Others are strongly forward-looking, such as forecasts of population growth and sustainable housing demand. Each of the criteria is then evaluated by means of defined value classes on a scale of one to five, one representing the lowest value and five the highest value.

The individual results are aggregated and add up to a score for the selected macro and micro-situation. The microvariable “Attractiveness of the residential area” is overweighted in the model because it consists of different subcriteria. All other variables are included equally in the scoring.

The study may offer helpful pointers and landmarks. From the perspective of long-term oriented investors, approaches for own investment strategies can be derived.