At the beginning of January, the US economy was still the world’s economic engine, while Germany – after negative growth in the fourth quarter – was heading for a very weak first quarter.
“However,” says Carsten Mumm, Chief Economist at Privatbank DONNER & REUSCHEL, “the current flash estimates of the Markit purchasing managers’ indices paint a different picture.” With an unexpected dynamism in economic activity both in industry and among service providers, Germany has exceeded the expansion threshold of 50 points again for the first time.
The tense supply chains in the industrial sector appear to be gradually easing, allowing for a significant expansion in production. In addition, new orders rose again in all Sectors, while cost pressures remained high.
In the USA, on the other hand, the picture is quite different, depicts Carsten Mumm: corporate sentiment in the manufacturing sector fell slightly and the services index fell to just over 50 points. The background was the combination of lower demand, worsening supply chain problems and the shortage of workers.
The managers surveyed are still reporting sharply rising costs and the resulting significant increase in sales prices. The problems faced by companies are mainly related to production and are primarily due to the rampant omicron wave.
However, given the currently falling number of new cases in the USA, the Chief Economist hopes that the infection peak has already been passed and that the number of new cases, based on experience from Great Britain, for example, is likely to fall quickly in the short term.
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The average Bitcoin holding time for investors is estimated 3.1 years.
However, as a new Handelskontor infographic shows, there has recently been a change: More and more traders are appearing, while the relative proportion of long-term investors is falling.
According to research done by Handelskontor, at the beginning of March there were 5.41 million Bitcoin traders – more precisely, so many BTC addresses where Bitcoins were held for less than a month. In November of last year there were only 3.56 million.
The effect shown can be due to an increased use of cryptocurrency as a means of payment, as well as to increasing trading for speculative intentions. Judging by the advertising in the social media, however, when buying Bitcoin, the focus is on speculation about quick wins, and the payment function is hardly mentioned.
The addresses on which the Bitcoins are held for at least 12 months and are not transferred make up an ever smaller relative share of this popluation. This fell within the last 5 months from 64.79 to 58.88 percent.
In the social media these days, optimistic comments on the subject of Bitcoin predominate. In the last 7 days, 110,042 tweets with a positive connotation regarding the development of the crypto currency were posted, whereas the number of negative comments only amounts to 26,253. The vast majority, however, were neutral. This could be an indication that – in spite of all the highs – there is still no euphoria.
Google data shows that the demand for Bitcoin is extremely high, but that altcoins are also increasingly in demand. The search volumes for the crypto currencies Ethereum and IOTA also recently reached new highs.
Without a vaccination and without a face mask, the risks remain incalculable.
Israel is leading the race to reach the 60-70 percent threshold needed to suppress the spread of Covid-19 among the general population. Second-placed UAE’s 60.8 doses per 100 inhabitants and the UK’s 30.13 doses per 100 of its citizens are ahead of the United States, where the rate of vaccination stands at 21.77 jabs for every 100 people.
In the Federal Republic of Germany it has not been possible to achieve approximately the same level of protection for the population. Therefore, the pandemic is expected to continue to spread. The lack of success of the measures taken will therefore continue to burden the risk situation of many companies.
‘CO’ stands for corona, ‘VI’ for virus, and ‘D’ for disease.
There is a lot of data circulating about the effectiveness of vaccines against the coronavirus. Even experts can skid when they have to translate the numbers from scientific studies into concrete, understandable information. Explaining the effectiveness numbers and their meaning is not easy.
The vaccines are effective, but how effective exactly? Especially when it comes to vaccination to prevent diseases with COVID-19, it is important to be absolutely clear about its effectiveness and effectiveness in order to counter doubts and questions with clear information.
Say the effectiveness of the vaccine on the basis of messenger ribonucleic acid is given as 94%. This number shows how many cases of symptomatic COVID-19 illnesses are prevented by the vaccinations. This is calculated with 100 × (1 – disease rate with vaccine / disease rate with placebo). This becomes concrete if one looks at a population group that is similar to the group examined in the clinical study. A cumulative COVID-19 disease rate over a period of 3 months is considered, which is, for example, around 1% without vaccine, as was seen in the placebo arms of the vaccination studies.
With vaccine, 94% of these diseases that would otherwise occur would not occur. So actually only about 0.06% of people vaccinated would get COVID-19. On the other hand, it is commonly interpreted that 94% effectiveness means that 6% of all vaccinated people still get sick – versus 0.06% sick people with the correct meaning.
Then what does 94% mean? Misunderstood 6000 patients out of 100 000, actually only 60 patients. This precise description of the findings from the vaccination studies is also important for further predictions, for example when it comes to risk reduction in populations that are more exposed, exposed to higher numbers of infections or have an increased risk of disease.