RATING.REPAIR In The Holiday Month Of August

Statistics

Who is actually interested in RATING©REPAIR? Only subscribers are known by name. All others remain anonymous.

Nevertheless, we can see how many views RATING©REPAIR has received per country by the day, week, month, and year. This is technically possible today. The above illustration refers to the last 30 days.

If a visitors’ location cannot be determined, their views will not be reflected in this chart. A visitor is counted when a user or browser is seen for the first time in a selected time frame.

The unique weekly visitors can sometimes be less than the sum of daily visitors for the same week. The same goes for unique weekly visitors being less than your total monthly visitors. This occurs when the same visitor appears multiple times during the week or month. Yearly totals are a sum of monthly totals.

The following traffic are not reflected in the stats:

  • Visits collaborators of RATING EVIDENCE GmbH make to our own publicly-available site RATING©REPAIR while logged into our account.
  • Visits from browsers that do not execute javascript or load images.
  • Googlebot and other search engine spiders.
  • Visits to a publicly available site by users that are logged in, and listed as members of the site.

Views of password-protected posts or pages on RATING©REPAIR will be counted in the stats. If they do not successfully enter a password to view the page, they will be sent to a 404 error page and will not see the content that is password-protected.

The picture above shows the stats for 30 days ending August 28, 2021 (summarized).

In August 2021 the website RATING©REPAIR welcomed visitors from the following countries. Most of the visitors came from Germany. The countries are sorted according to the number of visitors:

  • Germany
  • United States
  • Norway
  • United Kingdom
  • Austria
  • France
  • Portugal
  • Italy
  • Switzerland
  • China
  • Sweden
  • Nigeria
  • Netherlands
  • Singapore
  • India
  • Spain
  • Denmark
  • Russia
  • Canada
  • Hong Kong SAR China
  • Ecuador
  • Australia
  • Ireland
  • Greece
  • Finland
  • Brazil
  • Sri Lanka
  • Hungary
  • Israel
  • Thailand
  • South Korea
  • Slovenia
  • Macau SAR China
  • Maldives
  • Venezuela
  • Lithuania
  • Czech Republic
  • Turkey
  • Mexico
  • Bulgaria
  • Romania
  • Philippines
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Belgium
  • Bangladesh
  • El Salvador
  • Angola
  • South Africa
  • Algeria
  • Taiwan
  • Indonesia
  • Uganda
  • Poland
  • New Zealand
  • Serbia
  • Luxembourg
  • Cyprus
  • Iceland
  • Malaysia
  • Morocco

Of course, it cannot be stated whether the visitors were of the nationality of the respective state or whether they have their business or private seat there. For example, the visitors to our website from the Maldives may be holidaymakers who enjoy their vacation on the islands and pass their time by visiting our website RATING©REPAIR. We at RATING EVIDENCE GmbH are then happy to have contributed to their enjoyment and relaxation!

Which Rating Agencies The World Is Looking For In Germany

Agencies

Some surprising observations

Many Internet users do not bother to memorize the exact domain of a website, but simply enter a clear keyword into the Google search engine in order to be able to simply click on the desired result and visit the desired website. The displayed search results are therefore of great importance for the impression that a user receives from the respective rating agency.

As reported in an earlier post (“The Only Credit Rating Agency Recognized by BaFin“), an agency recognized by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) uses this function in order to present itself with a unique differentiating feature from all other agencies, namely with recognition by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). The catch is that BaFin has not been responsible for overseeing rating agencies for almost a decade, since 2012. Today, BaFin no longer gives its own recognition to rating agencies, which the rating agencies would allow to refer to in their advertising. The key to the rating business is the authorization according to the EU regulation.

Against the background of the ban on advertising with BaFin’s recognitions, the question arises of what significance the search results have in practice. How often could it happen that people are misled due to incorrect information in the search results? How often are rating agencies searched for that give false information?

Since search engines such as Google display their search results depending on the location, it must be taken into account that Google will most likely display rating agencies in the search results that are located in the vicinity or at least in the country of the searcher.

Only the following registered credit rating agencies are based in Germany:

Name of Credit Rating AgencyRegistered
Scope Hamburg GmbH (previously Euler Hermes Rating GmbH)2010
Creditreform Rating AG2011
Scope Ratings GmbH (previously Scope Ratings AG and PSR Rating GmbH)2011
GBB-Rating Gesellschaft für Bonitätsbeurteilung GmbH2011
ASSEKURATA Assekuranz Rating-Agentur GmbH2011
Moody’s Deutschland GmbH2011
Rating-Agentur Expert RA GmbH2015
DBRS Ratings GmbH2018
Source: European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), last updated list of May 7, 2021

Further below are the results from Google Trends, shown by snippets of screenshots. The information was accessed on August 27, 2021 on Google Trends. For the assumptions, requirements and interpretation of these results, please refer to their website.

Google Trends provides access to a largely unfiltered sample of actual search requests made to Google. It’s anonymized (no one is personally identified), categorized (determining the topic for a search query) and aggregated (grouped together). This allows Google to display interest in a particular topic from around the globe or down to city-level geography.

Here are a few notes on the study design:

  • The searches here were carried out with the shortest possible search term that unmistakably leads to the respective rating agency. For example, if you enter the word “Assekurata“, the rating agency you are looking for is already at the top of Google’s search results. “ASSEKURATA Assekuranz Rating-Agentur GmbH” is the correct full name of the agency. However, it can be assumed that most users do not bother to type in the full name including the legal form (“GmbH”), but are content with the word “Assekurata“. By the way, that is also the website’s domain name, https://www.assekurata.de/.
  • Entering the word “Creditreform” does not land you directly on the website of the rating agency, “Creditreform Rating AG“, but on the website of the group of companies to which the agency belongs. In addition, there are no other confusing results among the first search results. All search results for the keyword Creditreform lead to the right group of companies.
  • But if you search for the word “Scope”, you will likely get a translation of the word or a lexicon entry for “scope”. Who searches for this word “scope”, often searches for the following words as well, writes Google: Vortex, Scope statement, Zoom lens, C-Programming language, Carbon dioxide, and more. All of these search terms are not at all related to the EU-registered credit rating agencies in Berlin and Hamburg. Only those who want to be sure to find one of these rating agencies will find it under the following entries: “Scope Ratings” or “Scope Hamburg“. It is therefore imperative to add the word “Ratings” or, in the case of the Hamburg-based agency, to add the word “Hamburg”.

The more German federal states are marked in a shade of blue and the darker the blue, the more inquiries Google was able to record.

ASSEKURATA Assekuranz Rating-Agentur

12 months as of August 27, 2021. Klick on it for update!

Creditreform Rating

12 months as of August 27, 2021. Klick on it for update!

DBRS Ratings

12 months as of August 27, 2021. Klick on it for update!

GBB-Rating Gesellschaft für Bonitätsbeurteilung

12 months as of August 27, 2021. Klick on it for update!

Moody’s Deutschland

12 months as of August 27, 2021. Klick on it for update!

Rating-Agentur Expert RA

12 months as of August 27, 2021. Klick on it for update!

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Interest in rating agencies from all over Germany

As the figures show, there is keen interest in most rating agencies domiciled in Germany. So these rating agencies are searched again and again: Assekurata, Creditreform, DBRS, and, last not least, Moody’s. It also shows that the important financial centers in Germany are obviously relevant for the number of searches for these agencies. The city of the headquarters of the rating agency also seems to play a role, as does the industry or international orientation.

It should be emphasized once again that the searches are only made for those agencies that are also based in Germany. Rating agencies such as S&P Global Ratings or Fitch Ratings, which also have offices in Germany, but rather have their registered company domiciled in another country, are not taken into account. This search restriction is not associated with any judgement of the services provided by these agencies, but serves better comparability of the search results.

On the basis of the evidence shown above, the following hypotheses could be discussed:

  • Assekurata is based – and therefore searched there – at the insurance location Cologne, but is also wanted in the financial center of Frankfurt.
  • Creditreform is sought after all over Germany, as the company group also enjoys a reputation as an information bureau or credit agency.
  • In the case of DBRS, the connection to Morningstar and the fund rating might have led to a high number of searches.
  • With its international reputation as a US market leader, Moody’s is sought in the internationally important financial centers of Germany.

Now, however, the question arises why there are not a lot of search queries to be observed with the other agencies that would allow Google Trends an overview of the whole of Germany with blue coloring. Why do these agencies find less interest? The following facts and assumptions can be put together for this purpose. However, these can only help to understand the results, but cannot replace more detailed investigations.

The financial services industry specialist

As an independent European rating agency, GBB-Rating offers clients a portfolio of services encompassing rating, risk analysis, scoring and benchmarking. GBB-Rating’s credit assessments focus on banks, building societies and leasing companies. GBB-Rating is a subsidiary of Prüfungsverband deutscher Banken e.V. (Auditing Association of German Banks).

As an independent credit rating agency registered with the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), every year it analyzes the credit standing of private commercial banks in Germany and numerous European institutions. Since 2012 the ratings produced by GBB-Rating have been one of the factors used to calculate the contributions payable by the banks to Entschädigungseinrichtung deutscher Banken GmbH (EdB), the subsidiary of the Association of German Banks that guarantees savers’ deposits.

Most of the ratings from this agency are not published at all, but rather communicated directly to the banks assessed. The rating is primarily important for the relationship between banks and the deposit guarantee system.

The Compensation Scheme of German Private Banks (EdB) was entrusted by the German Federal Finance Ministry with the task of running the statutory deposit guarantee and investor compensation scheme for the private banks in Germany. The EdB’s job is to compensate the creditors of a bank assigned to it where the bank is unable to repay deposits. Liabilities arising from securities transactions conducted by a credit institution (i.e. bank) as defined in the EU Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR) are also deemed to be deposits.

Comparatively few experts are concerned with these very special questions. They are also supplied directly by the rating agency via distribution lists. An explanation for the low search volume on Google might be sought in these circumstances.

The continental specialist with roots in Russia

Rating-Agentur Expert RA GmbH is the legal entity of RAEX-Europe, affiliated with the international group RAEX. The group has more than 20 years of experience in rating and analytical industry. RAEX-Europe assigns classic credit ratings according to the international scale as well as non-credit ESG ratings (environmental, social & governance). In December 2018 together with the leading Chinese rating agency CCXI, the Pakistani VIS Group and the Islamic rating agency IIRA, RAEX-Europe signed a memorandum dedicated to the preparation and publication of analytical products for the Silk Road countries.

The agency doesn’t even run a German website. Their orientation is international and the domiciliation in Germany is a decision for Germany as a location in the European Union, since EU-registered rating agencies must have a seat in the European Union. The services of this rating agency are aimed at a special professional audience such as those with interests in the post-Soviet states.

The all-rounder with a claim to market leadership

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Failsafe Test Case To Be Averted

Actions, Authorities

Transactions of Lang & Schwarz Aktiengesellschaft are the subject of a tax audit, reports the company in a publication of inside information in accordance with Article 17 of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014.

The subject of the tax audit is an examination of the business of Lang & Schwarz Aktiengesellschaft in the financial years 2007 to 2011 in connection with investigations under criminal tax law. In the investigation, Lang & Schwarz Aktiengesellschaft is the addressee of a request for information and disclosure. This involves the persons responsible at Lang & Schwarz Aktiengesellschaft on suspicion of unlawful offsetting or reimbursement of unpaid capital gains taxes and solidarity surcharges in share transactions on the dividend date.

Lang & Schwarz Aktiengesellschaft plays a crucial role in trading so-called “wikifolios“. Each wikifolio can, if it meets certain criteria, serve as a fictitious reference portfolio to which a wikifolio index refers.

Lang & Schwarz Aktiengesellschaft issues endless index certificates on the wikifolio index. These endless index certificates are traded on the Stuttgart Stock Exchange and can be bought and sold at almost all banks and online brokers via the Stuttgart Stock Exchange or directly from Lang & Schwarz.

Wikifolio certificates are secured. “That means,” writes wikifolio Financial Technologies AG, “defaults from an issuer risk generally associated with investments in certificates are largely hedged.” The market capitalization of Lang & Schwarz Aktiengesellschaft is currently well below half a billion euros, which affects the susceptibility to short-seller attacks. These in turn could influence the company’s credit rating.

Therefore, investors in wikifolio certificates must take into account the unlikely but possible event that a test case of the fail-safe protection of the certificates could occur.

Art Markets’ Susceptibility to Rating Repair

Assets

The professionalization of an asset class can only be achieved with reliable rating offers.

More artworks are offered and traded digitally than ever before. With 24/7 worldwide bidding, “Artnet Auctions” is a leading online-only marketplace for buying and selling fine art. New bidders, buyers, and consignors across categories, geographies, and demographics entrust artnet Auctions with their needs.

Efficiency, digitally native operation, quick turnaround, and continuous sales throughout the year are the strengths of artnet in the industry. The auction platform allows for immediate transactions, with a seamless flow between sellers, specialists, and collectors. Complementing the online auctions, artnet can be considered as a leading resource for researching art online.

Founded in 1989, Artnet’s product suite has revolutionized the way people discover and collect art today. The Price Database contains more than 14 million auction results from 1,900 auction houses dating back to 1985, providing an unparalleled level of transparency to the art market. The Gallery Network platform connects leading galleries with collectors from around the world, offering a comprehensive overview of artworks for sale. Artnet News covers the events, trends, and people shaping the global art market with up -to-the-minute analysis and expert commentary. Artnet AG is listed in the Prime Standard of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, the segment with the highest transparency standards.

The changes in the art market are picking up speed at a tremendous pace. Changes no longer take place over decades, but rather over years and months. Artnet Auctions provide an example for the market dynamics. Artnet Auctions fee-based revenue increased significantly by 23% to 3.0 million USD in the first six months of 2021, as compared to 2020 (2,423k USD). Following continued record success in the first half of the year, Artnet Auctions has announced several key initiatives and sales in advance of the Fall 2021 season. Artnet starts to offer Non Fungible Tokens (NFT) as part of artnet Auctions fall season sales. “Bridging the gap between the traditional art business and the crypto world, we will be offering a diverse selection of NFT artists this fall,” said Jacob Pabst, Artnet CEO.

How do the transactions work?

True to the business’ belief in ensuring opportunity for transaction and liquidity in the art market at all times, Artnet Auctions is offering a sale of Robert Indiana’s iconic and rare to market LOVE this August. With an estimate of 250, 000 USD to 350,000 USD the all red sculpture from a series of eight will be live for bidding through August 25th – a time that has historically been quiet in the market for works of this caliber. The LOVE sale closes alongside 21st Century Prints, a sale featuring new and old works by widely renowned artists and printer-publishers, such as Banksy, Damien Hirst, and Nicolas Party.

At Artnet Auctions, a second iteration of the “Africa Present” sale, presented in partnership with Africa First founder Serge Tiroche, will go live on August 31, 2021. “This second iteration will additionally be presented in partnership with Latitudes Online, a leading online destination for the African art market. The sale will featu re works by Aboudia, Ablade Glover, Patrick Bongoy, Virginia Chihota and more.”

The experts at Artnet forsee that September will be a strong month for Artnet Auctions, which will feature a number of important sales, including Important Photographs , the category’s top sale of the season. “The sale will feature a work by German artist Andreas Gursky carrying an estimate of 300,000 USD to 400,000 USD. Additionally, works by Irving Penn, Cindy Sherman, and Vik Muniz will be offered within this spectacular sale.”

The role of art ratings

The core idea of every rating is to express a probability of the extent to which the expectations of a buyer or investor are met. While a system of credit ratings and rating agencies has developed for the bond markets over the last century, which, with state authorization and supervision, provides an elementary basis for private, but especially professional investors to make decisions about investments, there are approaches to art rating so far only in its infancy.

There is just as much controversy about the criteria and standards to be used in an art rating as about the suitability of the methodology and models. With the change in the forms of trade, the conditions for pricing also change, because every art market is nothing else than the economic place where supply and demand for art meet. Capturing, ascertaining, recognizing, evaluating and assessing the factors that determine an art rating is an art in itself.

The know-how and the skills to assess the value of art not only for today, but also with regard to its development for the future, are in the hands of comparatively few experts. The knowledge can be found in auction houses, gallery owners, leading collectors and, of course, the artists themselves, to name a few.

However, in order to develop an asset class more broadly and, in particular, to make it accessible to institutional investors who are required to report to their investors and stakeholders, independent ratings are required that express a neutral assessment. Today value judgments can still be found in numerous media and organizations of the art trade as well as museums.

The confusion of all these opinions leads to the formation of opinions by buyers as well as sellers of art. Accordingly, opinions about high, medium or low probabilities of a positive development in the value of art are expressed in a correspondingly little evidence-based manner. In the financial markets, credit ratings are the language used to express the probabilities of default. Stock ratings are used to express buy, sell or hold recommendations. Institutional investors can use this sophisticated system to make rational investment decisions.

The more unprofessional ratings are given, the more likely it is that expectations of art investors will be disappointed. Likewise, art collectors will regret their sale when they quickly realize that they could have realized a much higher price in a short period of time. Avoiding all of these disappointing decisions depends on the availability of efficient art rating systems.

The greatest boom in the art markets is yet to come. If rating systems become available that make the performance of art fund managers comparable and controllable, the art market would make even more financial resources available in the billions.

The Graveyard of Authorized Credit Rating Agencies in the European Union

Agencies, Authorities, Certifications, Registrations

Rating agencies have been registered in the European Union since 2010 in order to operate in accordance with the EU regulation on rating agencies of 2009 (CRAR). Dozens of agencies have therefore made use of the option, but also the obligation, to register or get certified. Rating agencies are only allowed to operate in the European Union after authorization, namely registration or certification.

A public list is kept at the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) on the registered or certified agencies. This list is an important reference for all market participants in order to find out about the approved agencies.

In order to make it easy to find it, the list of authorized credit rating agencies was linked e.g. from the website everling.de from the beginning. Since 1998, long before the word “blog” found its way into the German language, the website everling.de has been dealing with credit rating issues and the statutory or voluntary regulation and self-regulation of credit rating agencies.

It is less well known that a number of rating agencies have now returned their licenses. The return of licenses was particularly evident through brexit, when all those rating agencies that are based in Great Britain and were registered there could no longer be recognized by ESMA.

The following is a complete list of 16 de-registered or de-certified credit rating agencies as of May 7, 2021:

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Credit Rating Agency Authorisation 2021

Agencies, Authorities, Certifications, Registrations

Links to websites of the Credit Rating Agencies authorized in the European Union.

The credit rating agencies listed below have been registered or certified by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in accordance with the Credit Rating Agencies Regulation. Domains of websites are added. According to ESMA, the list was last updated on May 7, 2021.

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A Hurdle Of Practical Importance

Definitions, Modifiers, Scales, Symbols

The clear divide between investment-grade and speculative-grade debt markets dates back decades.

A number of central banks make their bond purchase programs dependent on minimum credit ratings. These are often operationalized by specifying rating symbols, such as the rating symbols Baa3 or BBB-. When a rating agency tries to win paid orders from issuers by giving benevolent ratings above this threshold, it is damaging the system on a very fundamental level. The rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has now presented an in-depth analysis with which it shows – inter alia – why it takes this threshold so seriously.

“Between the 1930s and the late 1970s,” tells Moody’s, “investment-grade companies issued almost all public bonds in the US, and the speculative-grade (or high-yield) bond market consisted solely of companies that had been downgraded out of investment grade (i.e., fallen angels).”

According to Moody’s, it was not until the early 1980s in the US, and later outside of the US, that a robust speculative-grade public bond market emerged and grew rapidly, fueled mainly by private equity-sponsored leveraged buyouts. Since the 1980s, the high-yield market has continued to expand as its own asset class with distinct investor groups. As a result, a clear divide has been maintained between the investment-grade and speculative-grade debt markets.

The classification is still at least as important today as it was in the past. Increases in credit spreads and losses at the investment-grade/speculative-grade divide are relatively large. One factor underlying the importance of this divide is the relatively large percentage changes in corporate credit spreads and losses when moving from investment grade to speculative grade, and vice versa.

“The percentage increase in spreads moving from Baa3 to Ba1 is materially larger than at almost all other points on the rating scale,” says Moody’s, “both in the first half of 2021 and over a longer period from 1991 through 2020.” Another finding in Moody’s report: “The investment-grade and speculative-grade divide delineates a difference in historical credit losses between Baa3- and Ba1- rated nonfinancial companies that is larger than at most other points on the rating scale.”

According to the data published by Moody’s, these relatively large differences across the Baa3/Ba1 divide are long-standing. “Regulations and portfolio governance rules that hinge on the distinction between investment-grade and speculative-grade ratings have led to these differences and have driven differences in financial policies and liability structures.”

See Moody’s Investors Service, Sector In-Depth: Corporates – Global, A closer look at the investment-grade / speculative-grade divide.

Price Tag

Rating Repair Pricing Model

Advisors, Consulting

What makes the price positioning of our rating repair shop so unique.

Our RATING©REPAIR brand has only one price, namely only a single monthly subscription fee, billed by WordPress and the payment service provider Stripe. With this price we position ourselves between

  • the monthly subscription fees of newspapers, magazines and other data providers on the one hand and
  • the offers of consultants and consulting firms on the other.

Our price is higher than with other blogs and accounts because we want to know each and every subscriber and focus on their interests exactly. With our RATING©REPAIR service, however, we do not offer any individual management consultancy that is based on customized project definitions with milestones specifically set by customers. Our service is also not a machine-operated robo advisor.

We see ourselves more like editors who know their most important readers personally, or like consultants who deliver a message or replicable management approach that is relevant to many consulting customers. In any case, we seek a conversation with our subscribers to understand what research and information we can help with.

Advisory Markets

The price positioning can be illustrated as follows. The advisory market is characterized by the dimensions of the price (per unit of time or quantity) and the degree of individualized customization. The higher on the vertical axis, the higher the price. The further on the horizontal axis, the higher the level of individualization of the advice. At the bottom left are the offers of the media, for example the websites of leading newspapers and magazines as well as news services, which at best only cater to a very limited extent to the individual interests of users using cookies on their websites. At the top right, on the other hand, are the leading consulting firms that do not operate under daily rates less than several thousand euros and often only accept project orders if they have a budget of at least six figures. RATING©REPAIR is therefore positioning itself as the very first service between these providers in a niche that has so far remained completely vacant.

Art Ratings And Tokenisation Will Feed Artists

Assets, Platforms

A new art tokenisation platform is important news for the art rating industry.

The rating of an artist is the indication that helps evaluate the value of an artwork, the rating of an artwork helps to understand the investment characteristics of art. 360X AG reports the successful completion of first Proof-of-Concept transactions with tokenised art.

There are many people who have experienced the frustration of following a famous artist throughout their early years only to find that the vast majority of their work is financially out of reach. Participation through fractionalisation alleviates this problem, allowing individuals to invest in their favourite artists. Art ratings and tokenisation are the two key ingredients which would enable more people to collect art and make long-term investments, which leads to more artists being able to make a living from their art.

360X Art AG runs a tokenisation platform for art of 360X AG. It announces that it has entered into a strategic partnership with a group of industry leaders in the European art market, Rüdiger K. Weng, Weng Fine Art AG and Johann König. Under the terms of this partnership Weng, WFA and König have invested in 360X Art AG in return for a stake of more than 20%.

Based in Frankfurt, 360X Art AG is a platform that builds and operates a dedicated, trusted digital ecosystem and infrastructure for the digitisation, tokenisation and fractionalisation of both high-quality physical as well as digital artworks. The company is directly connected to the recently announced trading platform of 360X, where digital tokens of art assets and other high-quality investment objects are made accessible, investable and tradable for investors.

The new technology is strongly needed to bring new liquidity, transparency, trust and democratised access to the art market and fine art investments. It could add a new dimension to trading art and will support professional financing structures to initiate future growth of the art market.

China Has Already Achieved Its Goal For 2021

Reports

“The growth of the Chinese economy was quite robust in the second quarter with a plus of 1.3 percent, but will slow down noticeably in the third quarter.” This is what Axel D. Angermann writes, who, as the chief economist of the FERI Group, analyzes the economic and structural developments in all of the markets that are important for asset allocation.

“After the economy had returned to the pre-corona growth path at the end of 2020 and the economic consequences of the pandemic for China had thus been practically overcome,” reports Axel Angermann, “the Chinese leadership began to reduce the monetary and fiscal policy stimuli that they had previously used to overcome the crisis.”

Attention has shifted again to the containment of the enormous imbalances within the Chinese economy and in particular the excessive indebtedness. “An outward sign of the changed priorities was the, by Chinese standards, extremely unambitious requirement to strive for growth of more than 6 percent in the current year, which in view of the low level of the previous year could hardly be missed from the outset”, says Axel Angermann.

The consequences: the volume of loans granted in relation to GDP is again as low as it was at the end of 2018, when a similar economic policy regime prevailed, and significantly fewer government bonds than in the two previous years. “The purchasing managers’ indices are still above the important expansion threshold of 50 points, but have been falling since the beginning of the year”, warns Axel Angermann. “Industrial production growth has declined by several percentage points, while retail sales growth has remained at a low level. The trend in imports remained positive until recently. In contrast, exports stagnated at a high level, which again led to a lower trade surplus towards the pre-Corona level. As a result, consumption, investment and foreign trade already contributed less to overall economic growth in the second quarter than in the previous quarter. There is much to suggest that this development will continue in the third quarter and that overall economic expansion will be slowed down as a result.”

Positive impulses from China for the global economy are therefore not expected for the time being, which has an impact in particular on those countries that benefit to a considerable extent from exports to China, i.e. many emerging Asian countries and, in Europe, Germany in particular. “However, strong negative effects also appear unlikely: China’s leadership is well aware that their approach is a balancing act that harbors the risk of higher unemployment and social unrest. The stricter regulation of the private education system,” provides Axel Angermann an example, “is also likely to be due to the need to limit the financial burden on households for tutoring.”

He believes that the lowering of the minimum reserve ratios that the banks have to keep at the National Bank is more important: “This clearly sends the signal that they do not want to push ahead with reducing lending at any cost. There is therefore much to suggest that lending will stabilize at the lower level it has now reached. In the medium term, China’s economy would thus swivel on a course of moderate growth slightly below the 6 percent mark. The greatest risk remains that existing tensions with the US will result in a kind of cold economic war. An increasing decoupling of the two economic blocs from one another would not only jeopardize globalization, but also put Europe in an extremely difficult position.”